Is The Community Shield A Guide To The Season Ahead?

So the Premiership season is only days away, which means the Community Shield has come and gone. The game that last week everyone agreed was a pre-season friendly, albeit a competitive one, a final work out for the players has now been re-assigned as a marker for Manchester United, a kick in the face for United’s noisy neighbours, and according to Alan Hansen, the proof we all needed that United are the team to beat, and it is their title to lose (they are defending champions, this should be obvious to him anyway). Under an article entitled: Community Shield Has Changed Everything, he added:

“Suddenly they are overwhelming favourites. They look a team of tremendous strength in depth, something that has almost come out of nowhere. They are young, vibrant, exciting. The young players who finished the game looked as though they had been at Old Trafford for years. And they are a team, something which City emphatically are not. “

Yes, no need to analyse the contenders this season, or even play the games really – it’s a done deal.

But bitter sarcasm aside, just how much of a marker is the Charity Shield? Does history show us that it is a guide to how the league season will go? Well not surprisingly, no.

First, the history. The Charity Shield evolved from the Sheriff of London Charity Shield that had been introduced in 1898 as a professionals v amateurs challenge. The competition format has varied over the years – in 1930 the Football League winner v. FA Cup winner format was re-used, and with a few exceptions, this format has remained to the present day. The game has been moved to the start of the season from 1959 onwards.

Not all teams have historically accepted an invitation to play however – the last time Manchester City won it, they were there as the offer was declined by other clubs – City had finished fourth in the league, and beat a 3rd Division Aston Villa 1-0. And only in 1993 were penalties introduced into the mix – before that each team would have the trophy for 6 months if the game had ended a draw. In 2002, the competition was renamed the Community Shield, and that leads us to the present day.

Next – the statistics. From 1997 to 2004, the team that won the Community Shield didn’t go on to win the league the following season but in the last 6 yrs, 5 teams have done it, reversing the trend. Statistics don’t tell half the story of course. Teams that won on penalties do not provide evidence of a stronger team – such games are effectively draws, in the context of predicting league success.

So for the start of the run of winning Charity Shield teams failing to capture the league thereafter, we see in 1998 Arsenal winning the league, edging out Manchester United who had triumphed in the season’s curtain-raiser – but they had only triumphed on penalties. The roles were reversed the following season – Arsenal strolled to a Charity Shield victory, but lost out in the league. And the same happened the following year….and so on.

Recent records may have reversed the trend, but three of the games went to penalties, so little can be deduced from this. Finally, only in 2006 in the Premiership years has neither contestant in the game gone on to lift the league title the following season.

Of course both managers after Sunday will have things to ponder – the game does tell us something. Mancini will wonder why his team seemed two weeks behind in fitness to United. He will continue to wonder about the effectiveness of Dzeko and Balotelli, or the best position to play James Milner, if anywhere. But with no new signings starting the match, it doesn’t tell him too much at this stage. Ferguson will be happy with how his signings integrated into the team, and will be confident going into the new season. He’ll be happy that he got his players fired up, keen as they all were to avoid a third Wembley defeat in just a few months. And that’s about it. If Vincent Kompany had wellied the ball into Row Z in the 90th minute and City had gone on to triumph on penalties, no one would be crowning City champions-elect, and no-one should be doing the same for United, better team though they were.

An injury to a first-teamer would have had more consequences than the result of this one game. Its sole purpose is a teaser – the new season is around the corner, when the proof of the pudding will be in the eating – and only then will we be able to make confident predictions on how the season may play out. United were favourites to regain their title before the match, and no result would have changed that – it is up to the other teams to upset the odds, but everyone knew that already.

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